The Bank of Thailand predicts 6 million foreign tourist arrivals this year and 19 million in 2023 will be easier to prevent an epidemic. It forecasts economic growth of 3.3% this year and 4.2% next year (2023) after seeing 1.5% growth last year.
However, analysts point to a slower-than-expected tourism recovery because Chinese tourists are unable to travel due to strict travel bans on outbound and inbound travel to China under the so-called “zero covid policy”.
China is responsible for more than a quarter of the 40 million foreign visitors in the pre-epidemic 2019 statistics of Thailand’s tourism flow.
However, the committee further assessed that the Thai economy will expand to 3.3 percent in 2022 and 4.2 percent in 2023, behind the expected recovery in domestic use and tourism after the relaxation of border controls in Thailand and other countries.
Meanwhile, the impact of the conflict between COVID-19 and Russia and Ukraine on the Thai economy will be limited. However, the committee will look at the main risk factors for economic recovery, especially the impact of high prices on household living costs.
For this year, the Monetary Policy Committee estimates that the country’s inflation will reach 6.2%, higher than the previous forecast of 4.9%.
The Bank of Thailand last week kept its core policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, amid mounting price pressures and tightening monetary policy by its peers.
But according to a bot statement, the financial system has remained resilient. Commercial banks have provisions for high level capital adequacy and credit losses. Liquidity remains sufficient in the financial system, although the distribution of liquidity still varies across the economic sector. Some families and businesses remain at risk for rising living and production costs because their incomes have not been fully recovered without their high levels of debt.